DATE2022-09-17 16:36:32
TITLEThe role of natural variability over the historical period in the Mediterranean region
AUTHORSMario Rodrigo (1) ,Ileana Bladé (1) ,Pau Abelló (1) ,Jorge Guerola (1) ,María María Santolaria-otín (1)
  1. 1) Universitat De Barcelona, Group Of Meteorology, Barcelona (Spain)
ABSTRACTInternal climate variability is the one source of uncertainty in model projections of future climate that is unlikely to be reduced in the future, even as the uncertainty due to structural differences amongst climate models (structural uncertainty) diminishes or as certain emission scenarios become more plausible (emission uncertainty). It is therefore crucial to examine how much the amplitude of natural variability varies with location and season and how it affects the long-term trends. Here, the IPSL-CM6 climate model is used to assess this internal variability in recent temperature and precipitation trends in the recent Mediterranean climate. A 32-member ensemble of historical simulations was conducted with the same observed external forcing and almost identical conditions in the ocean, land and sea-ice model components. The spread among the different members illustrate how much regional trends may vary due solely to random internal fluctuations. Preliminary results show that natural variability contributes substantial uncertainty to temperature and precipitation trends over the Mediterranean region on both local and regional scales during the recent historical period (1950-2014).