DATE2022-06-24 23:16:20
TITLEProjected changes in temperature and precipitation over Syria based on CMIP6 projections
AUTHORSShifa Mathbout (1) ,Javier Martin-vide (1)
  1. 1) Climatology Group, University Of Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain)
ABSTRACTThe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to evaluate projected changes in temperature and precipitation over Syria. The changes are analysed using an ensemble of 24 models for four future time scales (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2060-2080 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1970–2000) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5).Precipitation and temperature changes over Syria are robust both in terms of sign and magnitude even for the lowest emission scenario SSP126. The projected warming during the twenty-first century can span from 2.13 to 6.91°C in CMIP6 considering these two different scenarios. The most significant positive anomalies are found in summer and more pronounced under SSP585 (28.4%) vs 19.3% under SSP126 relative to the (1970-2000) baseline. By the end of the 21st century, the temperature is projected to increase by up to approximately 7.0 °C over northern and southwestern Syria of the domain under the high emission SSP585 scenario. Projection of precipitation changes also showed that the precipitation over most parts of Syria will decrease during the twenty-first century and extreme negative anomalies in annual precipitation are more prominent for late future (2081-2100) under SSP585 scenario (>15%) compared to the base period through western, southern and central parts.. However, a robust and significant precipitation decline is projected during winter and spring by the end of the century and for the high emission scenario (>20 %) relative to the reference period.