DATE2022-06-22 18:30:22
TITLEInfluence of the Tropical Atlantic on the Euro-Mediterranean region under future climate conditions
AUTHORSDanila Volpi (1) ,Javier García - Serrano (1) ,Laura Gil - Reyes (1)
  1. 1) Group Of Meteorology, Universitat De Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain)
ABSTRACTInternal variability plays a remarkable role in the uncertainty of near-future climate projections over the Euro-Mediterranean region. The standard transient historical and scenario runs do not allow to properly evaluate the effect of a changing climate on the variability. To overcome this limitation and as an alternative to a large ensemble, a set of 250-year long coupled simulations with EC-EARTH 3.3 (CMIP6 version) have been performed with fixed radiative forcing at year 2000 and 2050, representative of present and future climate conditions respectively. The changes in the leading modes of Tropical Atlantic variability (the Atlantic Niño and the Subtropical North Atlantic) as well as their teleconnections have been assessed in three target seasons: spring (MAM), summer (JJ) and early winter (ND). While the change in sea surface temperature (SST) climatology shows an homogeneous high degree of warming, the difference between future and present SST variability displays a distinct behaviour, consistent along the seasonal cycle, with a decrease in the equatorial region and an increase at subtropical latitudes. The impact of these changes on the tropical-extratropical teleconnections will be shown and discussed.