DATE2022-06-19 20:13:49
TITLEThe Mediterranean region in the IPCC AR6
AUTHORSPiero Lionello (1) ,Elham Ali (2) ,Wolfgang Cramer (3) ,Jofre Carnicer (4) ,Elena Georgopoulou (5) ,Nathalie Hilmi (6) ,Gonéri Le Cozannet (7)
  1. 1) Univ Of Salento, Lecce (Italy) ,2) University Of Suez, Ismailia (Egypt) ,3) Aix Marseille University, Aix-en-provence (France) ,4) University Of Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain) ,5) National Observatory Of Athens, Athens (Greece) ,6) Monaco Scientific Centre, Moinaco (France) ,7) Brgm, French Geological Survey, Orleans (France)
ABSTRACTThis contribution combines information from different chapters in the IPCC AR6-WG2 report with climate information for the Mediterranean region in WG1, also making use of a separate assessment made by the Mediterranean Experts for Environmental and Climate Change (MedECC). In particular it considers the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability issues in the Mediterranean region that are described in the AR6-WG2 cross chapter paper 4 (CCP4). Climate change exposes the Mediterranean to the impacts of several climate hazards: decrease of precipitation, increases in drought frequency and intensity, intense warming and heat waves (both in the terrestrial and marine environment), increase of precipitation extremes in some areas, accelerating sea level rise and potential flooding of coastal areas. The impacts of these climate drivers are observed and are projected to greatly increase in the future in the absence of successful mitigation efforts. The consequence will be substantial additional risks for human health, agricultural production, water availability, floods and the condition of both marine and terrestrial ecosystems. The specific vulnerability of the Mediterranean region is a consequence of climatic and non-climatic factors: a large and growing urban population exposed and vulnerable to heat waves; a large and growing number of people in coastal settlements at risk by sea level rise; serious and growing water scarcity, already experienced today by countries in North Africa and the Middle East; economic risks for the tourism sector (due to warming but also future requirements to rapidly decarbonize transport); climate-sensitive ecosystems (marine, wetlands, rivers, mountain areas) already endangered by unsustainable practices. In this context, the adaptive capacity of ecosystems and human systems is expected to encounter hard limits due to interacting, cumulative and cascading effects. Currently, progress towards achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals differs strongly between Mediterranean sub-regions, with north-western countries having stronger resilience than southern and eastern countries. This contribution aims at presenting these issues and show the importance of combining mitigation and adaptation strategies for effectively reducing risks in the Mediterranean region.