DATE2022-05-31 16:54:55
TITLEMashreq Domain Climate Modelling Outputs and the Impacts in Selected Basins in the Eastern Mediterranean
AUTHORSMarlene Tomaszkiewicz (1)
  1. 1) Un-escwa, Beirut (Lebanon)
ABSTRACTResults from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) have signaled projected decreases in precipitation, rising fire risk, and decreasing wind speed across the Mediterranean region. Moreover, increasing drought at differing scales has been observed and expected to continue increasing. Such projections are not uniform across the region, however. Impacts can greatly vary between coastal, mountainous, and inland areas. The Mashreq domain regional climate modelling outputs, developed under the auspice of the Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR), have downscaled six CMIP6 driving GCMs at 10 km spatial resolution. Both raw and bias-corrected outputs have been made available to inform climate analysis across the greater Mashreq region, including the Eastern Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula. Based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the period 1961-2070, this fine-resolution data can be used to assess impacts at the basin level. The Jordan River Basin (Jordan), Nahr al-Kabir (Lebanon), and Nahr al-Kalb (Lebanon) in the Eastern Mediterranean all reveal increasing temperature and generally decreasing precipitation, although interannual and seasonal precipitation variability is projected to continue. Runoff is projected to follow a similar pattern. Evaporation (and evapotranspiration) typically increases with rising temperatures. However, in a water scarce environment like in areas of the Eastern Mediterranean, evaporation signals a general decrease. Such projected changes can have large implications on extreme events including drought.