| ABSTRACT | More than 50% of the world's population and almost 75% of Europeans live in urban areas. It is estimated that in the cities of southern Europe, due to climate change, there will be a higher increase in heat stress. However, the increase in maximum temperature during heat waves is expected to be greater in Central European cities. These future climate forecasts are very likely to shape and influence the criteria for choosing a place as a touristic destination. In fact, there are two cases, which distinguish between climate dependent tourism and climate influenced tourism. In the first case the Mediterranean is mentioned as an example where the climate functions as a pole of attraction for tourists looking for favorable weather conditions, while in the second case the climate influences specific activities. The goal of this study is to highlight the human thermal perception anticipated to prevail in twenty Mediterranean cities, during midday and evening. One of the most popular and widely applied human thermal index, the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), based on human energy balance, is utilized to quantify the regime of present and simulated future bioclimatic conditions. Air temperature, humidity, wind speed and global solar radiation (estimated at 1.1m where is the gravity center of the human body and builds the reference level for human biometeorological studies) are the parameters needed for the assessment of PET, using the RayMan model. The meteorological datasets concern 3-hour data from the SMHI RCA4 regional climate model (Rossby Center, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoping Sweden, spatial analysis 11 km), for the historical period 1971-2000 (reference period), as well as for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 (intermediate) and RCP8.5 (extreme). The results of the bioclimatic analysis will help in the management/dissemination of climate information for tourism purposes. In addition, the methodology used, based on bioclimatic (PET) diagrams, can provide detailed information in order to assess and quantify the climate change impacts on the tourism potential in the Mediterranean cities. |