| AFFILIATIONS | - 1) Fredy And Nadine Hermann Institute Of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University Of Jerusalem, Jerusalem (Israel) ,2) Department Of Tropospheric Research, Institute Of Meteorology And Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute Of Technology, Karlsruhe (Germany)
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| ABSTRACT | Skillful forecasts of weather extremes have a major socioeconomic importance. Here, I present a shift in our understanding of the drivers and predictability of heat waves [1]. I will further shed light on how climate change may influence these aspects in the eastern Mediterranean [2]. I will specifically focus on summer heat waves. These are identified using the climatic stress index (CSI), which was explicitly developed for the summer weather conditions in this region [3]. I will compare two complementary approaches to diagnose the predictability of heat waves: recent developments in dynamical systems theory and numerical ensemble weather forecasts. The former allows us to describe atmospheric configurations in terms of their persistence and local dimension, which provides information on how the atmosphere evolves to and from a given state of interest [4]. I will further provide projections of heat wave characteristics based on a suit of CORDEX simulation scenarios. Finally, I will offer estimates on how heat waves may affect mortality in Israel. The analysis framework I will present outlines an important avenue for future research, which can potentially be fruitfully applied to other regions and other types of weather extremes [5]. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- References: (1) Hochman A, Scher S, Quinting J, Pinto JG, Messori G. 2021. A new view of heatwave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean. Earth System Dynamics 12: 133-149. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021 (2) Wedler M, Pinto JG, Hochman A. 2022. More frequent, persistent and deadly heat waves in the 21st century over the Eastern Mediterranean. Science of the Total Environment, in preparation. (3) Saaroni H, Savir A, Ziv B. 2017. Synoptic classification of the summer season for the Lev- ant using an ‘environment to climate’ approach. International Journal of Climatology 37 (13): 4684–4699. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5116. (4) Faranda D, Messori G. Yiou P. 2017. Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes. Scientific Reports 7: 41278. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41278 (5) Hochman A, Marra F, Messori G, Pinto JG, Raveh-Rubin S, Yosef I, Zittis G,. 2022. Extreme weather and societal impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean. Earth System Dynamics 13(2): 749-777. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-55 |