DATE2022-05-27 03:19:13
TITLEThe rainfall extreme indices in the Northern Coast of Egypt based on CMIP5 models projections
AUTHORSGamil Gamal (1)
  1. 1) Cairo University, Faculty Of African Postgraduate Studies, Natural Resources Department, Giza (Egypt)
ABSTRACTProjected changes in rainfall extreme indices were investigated in the Northern Coast of Egypt as simulated by the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. Climate projections in 2071-2100 highlight general warming that can result in economic and environmental consequences. For most of the cases, the sign of the climate change signal remains the same for both scenarios, but the intensity of the signal is much greater for RCP8.5. In general, the future projections of the temperature are statistically significant and usually highlight robust warming, while for precipitation, results mostly show decreases and a reduction of precipitation extremes in the future warmer world. It was shown that a general intensification in the yearly mean of both maximum and minimum temperatures are projected throughout the domain with about 2-5 ∘C when comparing the period 2071–2100 and 1971–2000. Concerning precipitation, decreases are probable for the northerly coast part of Egypt, with relative reductions reaching ~10% in RCP4.5 and ~20% for RCP8.5. A general growth in the number of CDDs and a lessening in the number of CWDs. Annual whole rainfall quantity (PRCPTOT), usual daily precipitation rate (SDII), and the extreme precipitation of RX1day are all expected to decrease. Abrupt and inclusive strategies are mandatory to report the negative impressions of climate change.