DATE2022-05-24 15:37:43
TITLEWhat future evolution of the ocean surface off the large Mediterranean cities? A study based on the Med-CORDEX high resolution coupled multi-models ensemble.
AUTHORSFlorence Sevault (1) ,Samuel Somot (1) ,Nicolas Gonzalez (1) ,Robin Waldman (1)
  1. 1) Cnrm, Université De Toulouse, Météo-france, Cnrs, Toulouse (France)
ABSTRACTFisheries, aquaculture, forestry and agriculture as resource-based activities, are among the main economic sectors driving the development in the Mediterranean coastal regions (1). On the ocean side, any change in seawater characteristics affects those activities by impacting the coastal vegetation, deltas, aquifers, the pelagic ecosystem, and the fish population, among others. The Med-CORDEX international initiative provides the historical and scenarios simulations of atmosphere-ocean coupled models following the CMIP5 Global Coupled Model (GCM) scenarios runs, and the last generation of CMIP6 GCM scenarios runs. We focus on the sea surface temperature and salinity of about 15 zones off large Mediterranean cities all around the basin. Their evolution and the associated robustness and uncertainty provided by the multi-model ensemble are shown. In a second step, dynamic sea level is studied, to help understand the spatial patterns of temperature and salinity results in term of changes in local sea surface circulation. Reference:(1) Dos Santos M., S. Moncada, A. Elia, M. Grillakis, N. Hilmi, 2020, Development. In: Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, 23pp.