DATE2022-05-14 20:18:26
TITLEA System Dynamics approach for sustainable water management under global changes: a case study from the Souss Massa region.
AUTHORSAyoub Guemouria (1) ,Abdelghani Chehbouni (1,2) ,Salwa Belaqziz (1,3) ,Yassine Ait Brahim (1) ,El Mahdi El Khalki (1) ,Terence Epule Epule (1) ,Lhoussaine Bouchaou (1,4)
  1. 1) Mohammed Vi Polytechnic University, International Water Research Institute, Benguerir (Morocco) ,2) Institut De Recherche Pour Le Développement, Unité Mixte De Recherche, Centre D'études Spatiales De La Biosphère, Toulouse (France) ,3) Laboratory Of Computer Systems And Vision, Faculty Of Science, Ibn Zohr University, Agadir (Morocco) ,4) Laboratory Of Applied Geology And Geo-environment, Faculty Of Science, Ibn Zohr University, Agadir (Morocco)
ABSTRACTA System Dynamics approach for sustainable water management under global changes: a case study from the Souss Massa region. The interactions between ecosystem degradation, high population growth rate, climate variability, and socio-economic variables need to be better understood because of their potential impacts on food security, water resource sustainability, and climate change. Decision-makers need to be aware of these interactions for science-based decisions making. The Souss Massa basin, which has a strategic and socio-economic role in the kingdom of Morocco, is experiencing severe water scarcity due to the changing climate and the high competition between agricultural, industrial, tourism and domestic water uses. This challenging situation is impeding the sustainable development of the region. Our study proposes a tool that can help decision-makers to achieve sustainable water management based on improved water use efficiency. A sustainability index (SI) is fitted to evaluate the sustainability of water supply with respect to water demand. The SI is defined as the ratio of the difference between water supply and demand divided by the total water supply. To avoid water stress situations, the goal is to attain an SI above 20% throughout the study period. The modeling approach is the System Dynamics that provides a unique framework for managers to integrate the physical and socio-economic systems that are both important to the successful management of water at the watershed scale. This approach provides a better understanding of the interactions between different drivers of the problem that intervene during the model development process. It starts with the development of a conceptual model based on a causal loop diagram that will serve as the basis for quantifying the model and developing the quantitative stock-flow diagram. The simulation model is expected to highlight that water scarcity requires a shift in management policies regarding the demand and supply balance. The simulation results will help in shaping different strategies based on actions on both demands (efficient irrigation, high added value crops) and supplies (water treatment, desalination, water transfer, leakage management). The designed strategies will take into consideration the different socio-economic development plans of the region as well as the projected climate change. The model will first be tested in the Souss Massa basin and later extended to other basins. The study will showcase the benefits of applying System Dynamics to solve complex water resource management problems in water-stressed basins and will contribute to the sustainable development agenda in arid and semi-arid regions.