DATE2022-05-10 12:19:10
TITLEMediterranean cyclones in a warmer world: an analysis using the Med-CORDEX ensemble of coupled regional climate system models
AUTHORSMarco Reale (1,5) ,William David Cabos Narvaez (2) ,Leone Cavicchia (3) ,Dario Conte (4) ,Erika Coppola (5) ,Emmanouil Flaounas (6) ,Filippo Giorgi (5) ,Silvio Gualdi (4) ,Assaf Hochman (7) ,Laurent Li (8) ,Piero Lionello (4,9) ,Zorica Podrascanin (10) ,Stefano Salon (1) ,Emilia Sanchez-gomez (11) ,Enrico Scoccimarro (4) ,Dmitry Sein (12) ,Samuel Somot (13)
  1. 1) National Institute Of Oceanography And Applied Geophysics-ogs, Trieste (Italy) ,2) University Of Alcala, Alcala (Spain) ,3) University Of Melbourne, Melbourne (Australia) ,4) Fondazione Centro Euro-mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici-cmcc, Lecce (Italy) ,5) Abdus Salam International Centre For Theoretical Physics, Ictp, Trieste (Italy) ,6) Institute Of Oceanography, Hellenic Center For Marine Research, Athens (Greece) ,7) Freddy And Nadine Hermann Institute Of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University Of Jerusalem (huji), Jerusalem (Israel) ,8) Laboratoire De Météorologie Dynamique, Cnrs, Sorbonne Université, Paris (France) ,9) University Of Salento, Lecce (Italy) ,10) University Of Novi Sad, Novi Sad (Serbia) ,11) Ceci, Université De Toulouse, Cnrs, Cerfacs, Toulouse (France) ,12) Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre For Polar And Marine Research,, Bremerhaven (Germany) ,13) Cnrm (centre National De Recherches Météorologiques), Université De Toulouse, Météo-france, Cnrs,, Toulouse (France)
ABSTRACTThe Med-CORDEX ensemble of coupled regional climate system models (RCSMs) is here used to characterize cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region and related wind and precipitation fields at the end of the 21st century under the worst-case emission scenario (RCP8.5). In comparison to ERA5, all the RCSMs are shown to be able to capture the spatial distribution and features of the systems crossing the region. All the models tend to agree to show a decrease of the frequency and intensity of the systems crossing the region at the end of 21st century, with some of them also projecting a decrease in their mean size. Moreover, an increase/decrease in the associated precipitation and wind intensity in the Central/Southern part of the region is projected. The projected tendencies in the precipitation will partially compensate and amplify respectively the effect on the water budget of the region associated with the decrease of cyclone frequency in the Western and Eastern part of the region. On the other hand, a pronounced spread among the projections is found for other variables such as adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as the Iberian Peninsula and Ionian Sea. The observed spread appears to be driven by the driving global circulation model (GCM) as well as by the physical parametrizations and by the internal variability of each model.