DATE2018-05-24 09:55:06
IDABSTRACT20180524095506-0120
CONTACTpiero.lionello@unisalento.it
PRESENTATIONPOSTER
INVITED0
IDSESSION6
TITLECOMBINING COASTAL MORPHOLOGY, EXPOSURE AND HAZARD FOR DISCUSSING FUTURE RISKS POSED BY MARINE STORMINESS ALONG THE MEDITERRANEAN COASTLINE
AUTHORSP Lionello (1,2) , D Conte (2) , L Marzo (1)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. DISTEBA, Univ. of Lecce, Italy
  2. CMCC, Lecce, Italy
ABSTRACTThe assessment of risk results from the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Here we try to use a new dataset containing information on exposure and vulnerability and to combine this information with projection of future changes of sea level extremes, wave height and direction, sea level. A former set of multi-decadal regional projections is available for the description of the likely future changes of regional marine storminess and their uncertainty depending on emission scenario, climate model and inter-decadal variability as made available by past projects (CIRCE, RISES-AM). Results show a widespread and progressive future reduction of marine storminess in the Mediterranean Sea, with a clear climate change signal in spite of uncertainties associated with interdecadal variability and differences among the regional sea level and wind fields provided by climate models. Sub-regional projections of mean sea level evolution are still uncertain and the level at which the different parts of the Mediterranean will deviate from the global mean sea level rise is a scientific topic that is presently debated. However, a tentative superposition of hazard level changes, morphology and exposure is here presented and it shows the key role of coastal morphology and exposure in determining the risk, to a large extent increasing it in present critical areas (North Adriatic, Gulf of Gabes, Nile Delta …).
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