| ABSTRACT | Future changes in the atmospheric circulation can cause substantial socio-economic impacts, particularly by shifting the midlatitude storm-tracks poleward and by affecting precipitation patterns. However, the confidence in the atmospheric circulation response remains low, and multi-model ensemble projections of precipitation change cannot be interpreted in a probabilistic way. The presentation will highlight how different remote drivers of mid-latitude atmospheric circulation are important in shaping the precipitation response to climate change, and how understanding these processes is central to increase confidence in the Mediterranean regional climate projections. This will be explored by examining both the uncertainty in the transient response to climate change in the CMIP5 models future projections, and the equilibration of the circulation and precipitation responses once CO2 concentrations are stabilised. In particular, storylines will be developed where the Mediterranean precipitation response per degree of global warming is conditioned on the response in different remote aspects of climate. This will enable to identify worst case scenarios and evaluate the impact of different global warming targets. However, the dependence of the mid-latitude circulation response on global warming changes dramatically once CO2 concentrations are stabilised, a behaviour that is linked to the presence of different fast and slow components in the oceanic surface temperature response to greenhouse forcing. The implications of these different timescales for the hydro-climate response across the different Mediterranean type climates will be discussed. |