DATE2018-05-17 10:34:11
IDABSTRACT20180517103411-0226
CONTACTStyliani.Dafka@geogr.uni-giessen.de
PRESENTATIONORAL
INVITED0
IDSESSION4
TITLEESTIMATION OF THE MID AND LATE CENTURY EXTREME SUMMER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN FROM EURO-CORDEX MODELS
AUTHORSS Dafka (1), A Toreti (2), J Luterbacher (3), P Zanis (4), E Tyrlis (5), E Xoplaki (6)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
  2. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
  3. Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
  4. Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Geece
  5. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
  6. Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
ABSTRACTEpisodes of extremely strong northerly winds (known as Etesians) during boreal summer can cause hazardous conditions over the eastern Mediterranean and represent a major threat for the spread of wildfires, as well as the safe design, construction, and operation of wind energy turbines. Here, projections of changes in two 30-year future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) relative to 1971-2000 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, have been produced for Etesians. We analyze a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations, at the 12 km grid resolution, regarding changes, on a monthly/subperiod scale, of wind speed, mean sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies as well as the zonal wind at 200 hPa. Both scenarios for the mid and late century, indicate a strengthening of the Etesians (0.5 to 1 m/s, robust and significant in the period June to September), mainly associated with the strengthening of the subtropical and polar jet stream. The SLP is projected to increase over the eastern Atlantic, while there is a clear tendency of deepening of the low-pressure system over the eastern Mediterranean. Results suggest that the current estimate of wind power potential for the Aegean Sea can be significantly changed in the coming decades. In terms of fire weather threats in the future, this study suggests that there may be Etesians increases during critical dry periods, especially late in the summer season, leading to more extensive wildfires.
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