DATE2018-05-17 03:34:39
IDABSTRACT20180517033439-0152
CONTACTdunic@izor.hr
PRESENTATIONORAL
INVITED0
IDSESSION3
TITLEPRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE AND VARIABILITY OF THE ADRIATIC DENSE WATER FORMATION AND THE BIOS: ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE MODELS
AUTHORSN Dunic (1), I Vilibic (1), J Sepic (1), H Mihanovic (1), F Sevault (2), S Somot (2), R Waldman (2), T Arsouze (3,4), R Pennel (4), P Nabat (2)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Hrvatska
  2. CNRM-GAME (CNRS/Meteo-France), Toulouse, France
  3. ENSTA-ParisTech, Palaiseau, France
  4. IPSL/Laboratorie de Meteorogie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France
ABSTRACTDense water formation (DWF) occurring in the Adriatic Sea, the northernmost Mediterranean basin, represents an important driver for the Eastern Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. There are two DWF locations in the Adriatic: the deep convection site in the Southern Adriatic Pit and the shelf convection site in the northern Adriatic. DWF at both locations influences decadal Adriatic thermohaline regimes and the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS). Recent long-term analyses, based on observations, suggest a weakening of the Adriatic thermohaline circulation, which is likely to affect the Adriatic biogeochemical cycle and fisheries. Here, we describe the climate and variability of DWF and BiOS, using available regional climate models developed for the Mediterranean area. Present-day DWF and BiOS climatology was analyzed using outputs of seven NEMOMED models covering the period of 1980-2012, and differing in spatial resolution (horizontal and vertical), atmospheric and river forcing, and in coupling strategies. It is shown that fully coupled models have a better capacity to reproduce the thermohaline properties and processes. For that reason, future behavior of the Adriatic thermohaline circulation, the DWF and the BiOS was analyzed using outputs of fully coupled future runs covering three common scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Preliminary results of these analysis are shown.
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