DATE2018-05-17 01:25:45
IDABSTRACT20180517012545-0155
CONTACTp.hadjinicolaou@cyi.ac.cy
PRESENTATIONORAL
INVITED0
IDSESSION3
TITLEDIFFERENTIAL 20TH AND 21ST CENTURY WARMING AROUND THE MEDITERRANEAN AND THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST
AUTHORSP Hadjinicolaou (1), G Zittis (1), J Lelieveld (1,2)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
  2. Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germanry
ABSTRACTWe apply the WRF model as a regional climate model (RCM) over the MENA-CORDEX domain to downscale, at a horizontal resolution of 50 km, from 1951 to 2100, meteorological fields from the NCAR’s CESM1 global climate model (GCM) and under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The RCM and GCM simulated temperature climatology and temporal evolution are first analysed for the recent past using the ERA-Interim re-analyses (and other) data. Fourteen sub-regions within the MENA domain (including the Mediterranean) are analysed. The derived observed trends from 1979 up to 2016 indicate geographically differential warming rates, with parts of the Middle East exhibiting more than 0.5 degrees per decade (partly captured by the model scenario runs). A distinctly large winter/spring warming trend is revealed over Iran. The projected temperature change from the two downscaling experiments (the RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) is also analysed for future periods by deriving annual and seasonal averages for the defined areas around Mediterranean, the Middle Rast and North Africa, in order to explore future sub-regional hot-spots of warming within the basin. Several sub-regions at the northern and eastern parts of the MENA domain (from the Balkans to the Gulf) are exhibiting faster warming trends for 2001 to 2100 compared to the global mean from the CIMP5 ensembles. The 21st century warming rates projected by the RCM over the sub-regions are analysed, in comparison to the global average warming from the driving GCM, and the timing and magnitude of the regional and sub-regional temperature change for 1.5 and 2 degrees global warming are deduced.
PAGE67
STATE1