DATE2018-05-17 01:16:21
IDABSTRACT20180517011621-0179
CONTACTwolff@geographie.uni-kiel.de
PRESENTATIONORAL
INVITED0
IDSESSION6
TITLEUSING A COASTAL URBAN CHANGE MODEL TO DEVELOP SPATIALLY EXPLICIT URBANIZATION SCENARIOS FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN
AUTHORSC Wolff (1), AT Vafeidis (1), G Vafeidis (1)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
ABSTRACTThe rate and pattern of urban expansion will be one of the key determinants of future coastal flood risk in the Mediterranean. This study explores how exposure to coastal flooding could change in the future due to varying urbanization patterns. For this purpose, we develop a new set of spatially explicit coastal urbanization projections that are consistent with the global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To forecast plausible future urbanization changes spatially, we develop an Urban Change Model which uses a machine learning approach, namely Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), for modelling urban development. The model employs simple parameters as proxies for processes that drive urban coastal development (e.g. distance to coast, elevation, slope, roads, or population density) and estimates the likelihood of urban transformation for every grid cell. We then classify the outputs of the ANN model according to the global urbanization projections for the SSPs (from Jiang and O’Neill (2017)) to develop spatially explicit coastal urbanization projections. These projections are then employed for calculating future exposure to coastal flooding for a range of sea-level rise scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that considering the spatial patterns of coastal development can lead to significant differences in the assessment of future exposure and should be considered in long-term adaptation planning.
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