DATE2018-05-17 01:08:57
IDABSTRACT20180517010857-0193
CONTACTg.zittis@cyi.ac.cy
PRESENTATIONORAL
INVITED0
IDSESSION3
TITLEA MULTI-MODEL, MULTI-SCENARIO AND MULTI-DOMAIN ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN
AUTHORSG Zittis (1), P Hadjinicolaou (1), J Lelieveld (1,2)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
  2. Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
ABSTRACTSeveral observation and model-based studies have already identified the Mediterranean region as one of the most prominent climate change hot-spots. However, in order to better assess and tackle the impacts of climate change on a regional or national level it is essential to employ updated, high resolution and quality climate projections. These should preferably cover a wide range of possible futures and consider several sources of uncertainty. The most significant effort in addressing these issues and coordinating regional climate projections throughout the globe is the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) supported by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Fortunately, the Mediterranean region is included in several CORDEX domains such as the European (EURO-CORDEX), African (CORDEX-AFRICA), Mediterranean (MED-CORDEX) and Middle East/North Africa (MENA-CORDEX). In this study, we aim in compiling monthly temperature and precipitation information derived from regional simulations performed over different CORDEX domains. This multi-model, multi-scenario and multi-domain “Super-Ensemble” is used in order to create updated maps of projected changes for the Mediterranean region and for key hydro-meteorological variables. The statistical robustness and significance of the climate change signal is assessed. We also explore how critical is the domain location in the simulation of temperature and precipitation, particularly over regions that are located near the domain boundaries and are covered by more than one domains.
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