DATE2018-05-16 11:50:07
IDABSTRACT20180516115007-0159
CONTACTbora.on@gmail.com
PRESENTATIONORAL
INVITED0
IDSESSION2
TITLEA BAYESIAN TEST ON THE 4.2 KA BP ABRUPT CLIMATIC CHANGE EVENT FOR THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND ARABIAN PENINSULA PALEOCLIMATE DATA
AUTHORSZ. B. Ön (1,2), M. S. Özeren (2), A. M. Greaves (3), S. Akçer-Ön (1)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Mugla SK University, Geology, Mugla, Turkey
  2. ITU Avrasya YBE, Istanbul, Turkey
  3. University of Liverpool, Department of Archaeology, Liverpool, UK
ABSTRACTIt has been proposed that an abrupt climatic change around 4.2 ka BP caused the collapse of the Akkadian Empire. Since then, many geological studies have arisen that support the theory. While there are also many studies which contradict the idea of an abrupt climate change, the time point has nevertheless even been suggested as a potential stratigraphic boundary within the Holocene. Time series plots of paleoclimate studies, which claim to support the abrupt climate change theory, show different temporal and geometrical patterns. In this study, we use Bayesian structural time series method to test time series data from the Eastern Mediterranean and Arabian Peninsula, which are claimed to have a climatic anomaly around 4.2 ka BP. While doing this, time series are reconstructed using "unaffected" time series in a fully Bayesian framework and consequently, a Bayesian hypothesis test is applied on the results. According to our study, the effect of any putative abrupt climatic change does not appear to be statistically significant in a number of studies that have previously been cited to support the 4.2 ka BP event.
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