DATE2018-05-16 05:24:55
IDABSTRACT20180516052455-0210
CONTACTonolba@itu.edu.tr
PRESENTATIONORAL
INVITED0
IDSESSION3
TITLEEVALUATION OF MULTI-MODEL AND MULTI-DOMAIN ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS BASED ON CORDEX INITIATIVE OVER TURKEY
AUTHORSS Kahraman (1), B Önol (1)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. ─░stanbul Technical Uni., Meteorology Dept., ─░stanbul, Turkey
ABSTRACTThe aim of this study is to define the future change of the mean temperature and precipitation over Turkey for period of 2025-2099 by using the ensemble of various regional climate simulations forced by RCP8.5 scenario. We have aggregated 64 temperature and 53 precipitation simulations from the project called the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), since the overlapping area of five CORDEX domains (AFR, EUR, WAS, MED, MNA) covers the most of Turkey. We have calculated the precipitation and the temperature changes for the future by taking the advantage of the multi-model/multi-domain ensemble simulations. The period of 2025-2099 has been divided into 25-year periods to define the future change with respect to 1981-2005. The ensemble spread of annual mean temperature of Turkey is risen up to in the range of 13 to 17 °C by the end of the 21st century. The ensemble means of the temperature simulations indicate that the increase is more evident over the Eastern Turkey and temperature change varies between 0.8 and 7.2 °C. Seasonal temperature change signals in all 25-year periods are very strong in summer season. In terms of precipitation change, the water scarcity will escalate in 2075-2099 and the precipitation decrease over the Aegean and the Mediterranean region varies in the range of 20% to 30%. At the end of the century, the decrease of the ensemble precipitation mean reaches 20% for the entire Turkey which may cause inevitable impacts on every dimensions of social, economic and environmental life. Despite we managed the large amount of ensemble simulations, inequity for the ensemble size of each domain is still the main compelling factor to determine the uncertainty of the climate change scenario simulations.
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