| ABSTRACT | The development and propagation of "medicanes", the tropical-like cyclones (TLCs) of the Mediterranean, have been studied by many researchers in recent decades due to their heavy impacts on infrastructure and even human lives in coastal areas. The Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, of National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, maintains an extreme weather database, including medicanes. In this context, the forecasting capability of WRF with respect to the TLC event "Zenon", that affected the Ionian Sea and parts of western Greece on November 18-19, 2017, is investigated. The study aims towards a better understanding of the thermodynamic structure of TLCs, as well as better simulating trajectories.Medicane "Zenon" developed in the northern part of the Ionian Sea, on Thursday November 16, 2017. Satellite imagery revealed the characteristic "eye" of clear sky when it approached the area south of Salento peninsula and west of Corfu. Then the TLC moved towards the western coast of Greece, causing winds gusts of 70 km/h and heavy rainfall and small floods in the region of Achaia, northwestern Peloponnese. The 31 km grid resolution data of ERA5 Reanalysis was dynamically downscaled to 9 km using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In order to select the optimum configuration a number of different physics configurations were applied and validated against observations from ground stations, soundings and remote sensing products. The aforementioned simulation will be compared with the 27 km grid resolution data of GFS forecast products. Also, the simulated trajectories were examined to those derived by EUMETSAT SEVIRI satellite. The findings of the performed analysis shed light on the shortcomings of the operational weather forecasts when a medicane develops. Acknowledgement: This study is under the project "Modelling the Vertical Structure of Tropical-like Mediterranean Cyclones using WRF Ensemble Forecasting and the impact of Climate Change (MEDICANE)" which is implemented through the Operational Program Human Resources Development, Education and Lifelong Learning" and is co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national funds. |