|ABSTRACT||Effective adaptation to climate change require impact and response scenarios. Although climate and agricultural impact scenarios are based on the evaluation of spatially heterogeneous system, conventional response scenarios do not account for variation in the people-climate interactions. These interactions are often extremely heterogeneous and unevenly distributed in space, leading to errors in the adaptation needs and plans, especially in large areas. Here we develop a novel framework for adaptation that accounts for the heterogeneity of people response to climate, and apply the concept to adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Mediterranean region. By incorporating spatially explicit information on farming systems, management practices, and agricultural ecosystem services, this approach may contribute to adaptation policy.
The approach is composed of three modules:
(a) An impact module that characterises the potential consequences of climate change for major agricultural ecosystem services (production, greenhouse gas emissions, and water savings).
(b) A response module that statistically evaluates the people-climate interactions (in terms of farming systems and management practices), upscaling local or aggregated information.
(c) An adaptation module that combines the results of the impact and response modules across space, and defines adaptation needs.
This new approach is applied in the Mediterranean region, that is characterised by large heterogeneity of terrain, farming systems, and socio-economic characteristics. It considers that people response to climate change is spatially heterogeneous, facilitating a more insights into adaptation planning.|