DATE2016-06-27 11:44:18
IDABSTRACT20160627114418-1108
CONTACTamramos@fc.ul.pt
PRESENTATIONPOSTER
INVITED0
IDSESSION4
TITLEAMOSPHERIC RIVERS IN THE IBERIAN PENINSULA: FROM MOISTURE SOURCES TO IMPACTS AND FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
AUTHORSAlexandre M. Ramos (1), Ricardo M. Trigo (1), Ricardo Tomé (1), Margarida L.r Liberato (1,2), David Lavers (3), Raquel Nieto (4), Luis Gimeno (4)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade De Ciências, Universidade De Lisboa Lisboa (Portugal)
  2. Escola De Ciências E Tecnologia, Universidade De Trás-os-montes E Alto Douro Vila Real (Portugal)
  3. European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasting Exeter (United Kingdom)
  4. Ephyslab, Facultade De Ciencias, Universidade De Vigo Ourense (Spain)
ABSTRACTAn atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin, allowing the identification of the major ARs affecting the Iberian Peninsula between 1979 and 2012. Following the identification of the main ARs that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula, a Lagrangian analysis was then applied in order to identify the main areas where the moisture uptake was anomalous and contributed to the ARs. The Lagrangian dataset used was obtained from a FLEXPART model simulation between 1979 and 2012. The results show that, in general, the major climatological areas for the anomalous moisture uptake extend along the subtropical North Atlantic, from the Florida Peninsula to the sink region, with the coast of the Iberian Peninsula presenting a local maximum. There is a strong relationship between extreme precipitation across Europe and ARs. Regarding the Iberian Peninsula it was analyzed if the extreme precipitation days are association (or not) with the occurrence of ARs. Results show that the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. Since the ARs are associated with high impact weather it is of most importance to assess changes in the ARs frequency under future climate change scenarios. Regarding the Iberian Peninsula, changes in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport were analyzed using six global climate models from the CMIP5 under a medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Results show that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which lead to an increase in the ARs frequency for the 2074- 2099 period when compared with the historical simulation (1980-2005). This increase in future ARs frequency is estimated to be more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) when the annual frequency of ARs can more than double the historical simulation. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project FORLAND – Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning (PTDC/ATPGEO/1660/2014) funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT). A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/ SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).
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