DATE2016-05-31 15:03:24
IDABSTRACT20160531150324-0997
CONTACTreimann@geographie.uni-kiel.de
PRESENTATIONPOSTER
INVITED0
IDSESSION5
TITLEREGIONALIZED SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS FOR COASTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
AUTHORSLena Reimann (1), Jan Ludolf Merkens (1), Athanasios T. Vafeidis (1)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Kiel University Kiel (Germany)
ABSTRACTThis work extends the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) by regionalizing them for the Mediterranean coastal region. In recent decades, the coastal zone of the Mediterranean has experienced rapid socioeconomic development. However, these developments are unevenly distributed in space and time due to large socioeconomic differences between the northern, eastern, and southern parts of the region. As these differences are not sufficiently captured in the global SSPs, we develop extended SSPs to account for the characteristics of the region. Our work builds on the work of Merkens et al. (2016) who developed spatial projections of coastal population distribution on a global scale. Based on existing literature, we enhance those global coastal SSPs by considering region-specific elements, such as water use, second homes and subsidence, which influence socioeconomic development. Employing this set of general and Mediterranean-specific assumptions, we first develop coastal narratives for the five SSPs. These narratives account for socioeconomic differences across countries as well as for coastal versus inland developments within countries. In a next step, we interpret our narratives to develop spatial population projections until the end of the 21st century, at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. These projections reflect, in line with the narratives, regional differences across countries as well as coastal versus inland population growth in rural and urban areas in each country. We anticipate that our regional coastal SSPs are better suited for coastal Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) assessments on a regional scale.
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STATE1