|ABSTRACT||In this work we present streamflow projections for the Guadalquivir basin (southern Iberian Peninsula) under the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, for the periods 2051-2070 and 2071-2100. For this end we use a coupling between the hydrological Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF).
In VIC model land surface is modeled here as a grid of large and uniform cells with sub-grid heterogeneity (e.g. land cover), while water influx is local, only depending from the interaction between grid cell and local atmosphere environment. Water streamflow is obtained separately from the land surface simulation, using the Routing Model, that collect the local water runoff and reconstruct the global stream network from the elevation map. VIC model uses as input different meteorological variables that are supplied by the WRF simulations.
We performed a calibration of the most relevant VIC model parameters using observed daily flows, for the decade 1988-1997. Here we coupled the VIC model with observational climate data, obtained from SPAIN02 database.
WRF runs were carried out over a domain encompassing the Iberian Peninsula and nested in the coarser EURO-CORDEX domain. The optimal parameters set resulting from such analysis have been used to obtain a high-resolution 35 year period (1980-2014) dataset, driven by ERA-Interim. For the climate change projections, WRF is driven by the corrected CMIP5-CESM1 (CCM4) outputs.
Finally, we analyze the projected changes in the streamflow compared with those obtained under present climate conditions.
Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de AndalucÃa-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).|