DATE2016-05-31 11:38:33
IDABSTRACT20160531113833-0961
CONTACTpiero.lionello@unisalento.it
PRESENTATIONORAL-PLENARY
INVITED0
IDSESSION4
TITLEFUTURE MARINE STORMINESS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA: ENSEMBLES OF MULTI-MODEL AND MULTI-SCENARIO PROJECTIONS
AUTHORSPiero Lionello (1,2), Dario Conte (2), Luigi Marzo (1)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Disteba, Univ Of Salento Lecce (Italy)
  2. Cmcc Lecce (Italy)
ABSTRACTFuture changes of sea level extremes, wave height and direction probability distribution provide essential information for coastal management and protection. Changes of cyclone tracks and intensity are expected to produce corresponding changes of the hazard level at the coast by complex mechanisms involving wind speed and sea level pressure fields. To predict future evolution of storms, a set of multi-decadal regional climate simulations have been used for driving a storm surge and a wave model. This contribution reports the results of a set of seamless wave and sea level simulations covering the period 1950-2100 that have been carried out for the whole Mediterranean Sea with forcings that have been produced by different regional climate models under multiple emission scenarios (A1B, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). This large set of results allows to describe the likely future changes of regional marine storminess and their uncertainty depending on emission scenario, climate model and inter-decadal variability. Results show a widespread and progressive future reduction of marine storminess in the Mediterranean Sea, with a clear climate change signal in spite of uncertainties associated to the differences among various sets of forcing fields. A tentative superposition of hazard level changes and morphology of the coastline is used for identifying parts that are potentially at risk in the future.
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