| ABSTRACT | Israel's location in a semi-arid region along the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea makes the prediction of winter precipitation socially and environmentally important. In 1982, Tzvetkov and Assaf suggested that there might be a connection between the Eastern Mediterranean's heat content in fall and precipitation in Israel during the following winter. We revisit their hypothesis by using data collected continuously over the past 21 years by means of remote sensors measuring sea surface temperatures and elevation. The heat content of the Eastern Mediterranean’s upper layer is derived from these remotely-sensed measurements under a reduced gravity approximation. Our results show a correlation of R=0.6 between heat content in the fall off the coastline of Lebanon and precipitation in Haifa, as well as a correlation of about R=0.4 with precipitation in Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem. The depletion of heat content during winter correlates moderately (R=0.4) with precipitation in the three cities. Thus, according to our analysis, the heat content of the Eastern Mediterranean's upper layer in fall significantly impacts winter precipitation over Israel. However, other processes seem to be important as well. |