DATE2016-05-30 11:37:48
IDABSTRACT20160530113748-1049
CONTACTk.constantinidou@cyi.ac.cy
PRESENTATIONORAL-PARALLEL
INVITED0
IDSESSION4
TITLECLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE YIELD OF DURUM WHEAT IN THE REGION OF EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND MIDDLE EAST
AUTHORSKatiana Constantinidou (1), Panos Hadjinicolaou (1), George Zittis (1), Jos Lelieveld (1,2)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. The Cyprus Institute Nicosia (Cyprus)
  2. Max Plank Institute For Chemistry Mainz (Germany)
ABSTRACTThe increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation experienced the last years in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) due to climate change may have consequences for humans and ecosystems, including agriculture. Agricultural production can be adversely influenced through meteorological conditions that affect crop growth and yield. Here we study changes in the yield of durum wheat in the EMME region due to projected changes in thermal and hydrological conditions, by applying the Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) methodology. The climate input is produced from simulations by the PRECIS regional climate model over the EMME domain at 25km resolution, driven by different SRES emissions scenarios for the 21st century. Calculations of the crop yield are made by employing both steps of biomass calculation of the AEZ methodology, which result to crop yield potentials with regard to temperature, solar radiation and evapotranspiration regimes. Our outcome shows that for the period of 1961-1990 the highest durum yields are found in the Fertile Crescent and the coastal areas of eastern Mediterranean Europe. The first region is projected to be negatively influenced by the additional heat due to climate warming, while in the second area yield gains may be expected. Our implementation of the AEZ methodology can use as input any set of gridded climate data and be applied to various crops, contributing to regional assessments of climate change impacts on crop yields and food security.
PAGE92
STATE1