DATE2016-05-28 23:51:11
IDABSTRACT20160528235111-0966
CONTACTgamil.gamal@cu.edu.eg
PRESENTATIONPOSTER
INVITED0
IDSESSION1
TITLESTATISTICAL DOWNSCALING OF EXTREME CLIMATE INDICES FOR BENGHAZI-LIBYA
AUTHORSGamil Gamal Abd El-motey (1), Dalal Elbeshary (2)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Institute Of African Research, Cairo University Giza (Egypt)
  2. Cairo University Giza (Egypt)
ABSTRACTRepresentative concentration pathway (RCP45) of regional climate model (CRCM) from 2011 to 2041 used to study the future trend of extreme climate indices over Benghazi-Libya. Different extreme climate indices analyzed such as heat and cold wave, summer days and tropical nights also drought and flood indices analyzed also. The early results of data show that the temperature extreme indices has significant trend than precipitation indices may be due to the uncertainty of model physics and parameterization for precipitation. It is clearly that number of summer days (SU25) and tropical nights (TR20) has positive significant which mean that every year there is an increase by one day and night. Also there is a significant decrease in trend of cold days and nights. For precipitation extreme indices, there are negative trend for annual sum of daily precipitation >= 1 mm (-0.73), annual number of days >=10 mm (-0.02), annual number of days >=20mm (-0.022), but for annual sum of daily precipitation > 95th percentile (0.041) there is a positive trend, but the trend of precipitation indices is insignificant as temperature indices.
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