DATE2016-05-18 16:36:57
IDABSTRACT20160518163657-0967
CONTACTFadi_Karam@dai.com
PRESENTATIONORAL-PARALLEL
INVITED0
IDSESSION4
TITLEUSING THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX AS A KEY METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT INDICATOR TO STUDY CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN DRY MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENTS
AUTHORSFadi Karam (1), Nabil Amacha (2), George Mitri (3), Alfonso Dominguez (4)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Faculty Of Agricultural & Veterinary Sciences, Lebanese University Beirut (Lebanon)
  2. Department Of Biology, Faculty Of Sciences I, Lebanese University Beirut (Lebanon)
  3. Department Of Environmental Sciences, Faculty Of Sciences, University Of Balamand Koura (Lebanon)
  4. Centro Regional De Estudiosdel Agua (crea), Universidad De Castilla-la Mancha Albacete (Spain)
ABSTRACTA 30-year-long average monthly precipitation datasets from six catchment areas along the Upper Litani River Basin (ULRB) in the Bekaa Vally, Lebanon, were analyzed to study spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought classification in terms of duration and intensity. While no significant decreases in seasonal rainfall (SPI-12) were observed for the six catchment areas, negative trends were detected for autumn (SPI-3) and autumn-winter (SPI-6) months, with positive trends observed for winter (SPI-3) and winter-spring (SPI-6), thus indicating a delay in the start of the rainy season and a shift in rain occurrence towards the spring months (March through May). Results also showed that dry periods have become longer while wet periods have shortened in time in the six studied locations. Moreover, it was observed that rainfall intensity has increased along the valley, besides a decrease in the rainy days. This tendency can be partially explained by the weakening of westerly’s originating from northern and central Europe that dominates the eastern Mediterranean cost in winter. In addition, results show that the frequencies of dry and wet years for the whole period (1981-2011) are lower for the northern (Kferdan) and eastern (Rayak and Terbol) parts of the basin than the western (Ksara) and southern parts (Kherbet Kanafar and Markabe) when calculated with the SPI algorithm. This was consolidated by the trends’ detection using statistical methods, which indicated negative trends for the northern and eastern parts of the basin, whereas positive trends were found in the western and southern parts, which are closer to the Mediterranean slopes. We concluded that the SPI can be used as a trigger to describe the tendency of dryness and wetness cycles and narrate a climate impact assessment and drought diagnosis. We suggest that high weather stations’ density and data quality are very useful for describing detailed changes in weather across the country. In response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, adaptation measures in the water sector are urgently needed in Lebanon, including watershed management, integrated surface and groundwater management, and water resources development. Keywords: Standardized Precipitation Index, spatial rainfall pattern, temporal rainfall pattern, dryness, wetness, Westerly’s.
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