DATE2019-01-08 12:44:23
IDABSTRACT2014/411
CONTACTandrea.toreti@jrc.ec.europa.eu
PRESENTATIONORAL
INVITED0
IDSESSION4
TITLEAN EVALUATION OF CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATED PRECIPITATION EXTREMES OVER THE EURO-MEDITERRANEAN REGION
AUTHORSAndrea Toreti (1)|Philippe Naveau (2)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
  2. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement (LSCE) CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
ABSTRACTPrecipitation extremes have strong impacts on societies and natural systems, especially in vulnerable and exposed areas. Since changes in frequency and intensity are expected under climate change conditions, it is essential to achieve a better evaluation of climate model simulations. Here, we propose a novel statistical non-parametric approach that can be used both to evaluate models w.r.t observations and to assess their projected changes. The new method is tested and then applied to eight high spatial resolution Global Climate Models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Historical simulations and the RCP8.5 high emission scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean region are used as well as the E-OBS daily gridded observations. The comparison with observations in the period 1966-2005 reveals the existence of a scaling relationship (when the southern part of the domain is excluded). However, the rescaled tails show significant differences w.r.t the observations. As for the projected changes at the end of the century (2060-2099), an intensification of heavy precipitation characterises almost all models; although, there is a lack of spatial consistency in the tail behaviour.
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