|TITLE||FUTURE WATER AVAILABILITY IN THE UPPER JORDAN CATCHMENT (UJR)|
|AUTHORS||Gerhard Smiatek (1)|Harald Kunstmann (1)|
- Karslsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
|ABSTRACT||The contribution investigates the impact of climate change on the future water availability of the Upper Jordan River (UJR) located in the Eastern Mediterranean. The constraints of this investigation are inherently difficult. Complex terrain with elevations up to 2800 m, partially karstic environment, outflow to ungauged outside springs and lack of meteorological observations in large parts of the catchment are the major obstacles here.
UJR and its tributaries Dan, Snir and Hermon are simulated by a highly resolved distributed approach. It involves the PSU/NCAR meteorology model MM5 run at 18.6 km and 6.2 km resolution and the hydrology model WaSiM run at 500 m resolution. The MM5 model was driven with NCEP reanalysis input for the years 1971-2000 and with HadCM3 GCM forcings for the period 1971-2099. In order to describe the karstic Dan spring behavior the hydrological model has been extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Further extensions cover the ungauged springs and missing meteorological observations.
The contribution describes the UJR, the model setup and results obtained for the present and future climate. The results show a decrease of the UJR discharge related to the 1976-2000 mean by 12 % until 2060 and by 26 % until 2099.|