DATE2019-01-08 12:44:23
IDABSTRACT2014/401
CONTACTbirgit.mannig@uni-wuerzburg.de
PRESENTATIONORAL
INVITED0
IDSESSION4
TITLETHE ADDED VALUE OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING IN THE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION
AUTHORSBirgit Mannig (1)|Heiko Paeth (1)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Institute of Geography and Geology, University of Würzburg, Wuerzburg, Germany
ABSTRACTFor applied climate impact research, information about the evolution of e.g. temperature and precipitation on the regional and local level is mandatory. A promising and widely used tool to assess this regional dimension of future climate change are regional climate models. The added value of regional climate models is due to a better representation of land-surface interactions and atmospheric processes. But the question remains whether also radiative heating implies predictability down to the typical scale of a regional climate model, especially as the use of high-resolution simulations could induce additional noise at smaller spatial scales, blurring the climate change signal on the regional level. To quantitatively assess the capabilities of a regional climate model we apply an optimal statistical filter: It allows to detect a climate change signal in the presence of climate variability by investigating the coherence between observed and simulated patterns of Mediterranean climate. Simulated patterns are derived from both a global and a regional climate model, allowing climate change detection on different spatial scales. Results show that, contrary to former assumptions, the regional climate model has an added value in the adumbration of regional climate change.
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STATE1