|TITLE||ARIDITY, INTERMITTENCY AND EXTREMES: PREDICTING HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN HYPER-ARID REGIONS|
|AUTHORS||Annalisa Molini (1,2)|Niranjan Kumar (1,2)|
- Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- iWATER Center, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
|ABSTRACT||Precipitation over arid and hyper-arid regions represents per se an extreme event, often resulting in surface-hydrologic impacts comparatively way more catastrophic than in temperate climates. Intense and short-lived patterns noticeably define the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation through arid climates, being intimately related to the local availability of water and energy as well as to the climatology of large-scale weather systems that sporadically – or seasonally – hit these areas.
In particular, the link between aridity and sustainable development has became increasingly important in the last decades, as urban development in desert regions approached a quasi-exponential growth.
However – given the limited number of research contributions analyzing rain extremes in hyper arid environments – is still an open question whether desert rainfall, and in particular its convective component, is actually more intense than in other climatic regimes, or at least presents peculiar features connected with the endemically water-limited regime of these regions.
To progress in narrowing this question we present here a diagnostic study of extreme precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula, as an exemplification of the major synoptic drivers producing intense precipitation in hot desert climates. The main objective is to understand at which extent the predictability of highly erratic precipitation patterns characterizing arid climates can be extended via the analysis of local hydrological extremes signatures embedded in synoptic patterns over hyper-arid regions. Also, our findings provide a framework to better understand the link between rainfall intermittency and aridity in water-limited regions of the world.|