DATE2019-01-08 12:44:23
IDABSTRACT2014/305
CONTACTenrico.scoccimarro@bo.ingv.it
PRESENTATIONORAL
INVITED0
IDSESSION3
TITLEEXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER THE EURO-MEDITERRANEAN REGION: PROJECTIONS DEPENDENCE ON DAILY/SUB-DAILY TIME SCALE DEFINITION
AUTHORSENRICO SCOCCIMARRO (1,2)|GABRIELE VILLARINI (3)|SILVIO GUALDI (1,2)|ALESSIO BELLUCCI (2)|MATTEO ZAMPIERI (2)|ANTONIO NAVARRA (1,2)
AFFILIATIONS
  1. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy
  2. Centro euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy
  3. IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, USA
ABSTRACTMost of the analysis performed on extreme precipitation events uses data stored by climate models with a monthly or daily frequency. Many works focus over the Euro-Mediterranean domain, using both General Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models, investigating changes in the different part of the precipitation distribution (such as averaged precipitation or intense/extreme events only) on a daily time basis. Less effort has been put in investigation of extreme events at sub-daily time scale. The main goal of this study is to verify possible differences in projecting future changes in intense and extreme events over the Euro-Mediterranean region, based on daily or sub-daily time scale. The importance of such analysis arises even due to the evidence that most of the registered extreme events occur on a sub-daily time scale, such as the extreme rainfall event registered over Sardinia during November 2013. To address this issue we use the CMCC-CM climate model, a high resolution fully Coupled General Circulation Model, developed to provide climate projection data to the community involved in preparing the 5th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Changes in intense and extreme precipitation are investigated at daily and 3 hourly time scale, following one of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) considered as illustrative of potential future scenarios. In particular we consider the RCP8.5 scenario, the one with the highest rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations within the new set of RCPs.
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