| ABSTRACT | The Mediterranean region is one of the hot spots of potential
anthropogenic climate change with significant alterations of the mean
climate state. Although this proposed future change is mainly manifested
in summer dry conditions, changes in winter, e.g. in precipitation, seems
not to be of similar coherence between different model simulations and in
magnitude comparable to interannual variability. Among the natural hazards
affecting this region, extreme cyclones play an important role: these
high-impact weather events may cause windstorms, storm surges, landslides
and flooding, mainly in the winter season.
This study will investigate cyclones and wind storms in the Mediterranean,
considering its extremity relative to the background climatology in the
Mediterranean, in three sections. Part one will concentrate on cyclones
and their relation to wind storm tracks and their variations associated
with large-scale climate variability modes (NAO, EAWR, SCAND). In a second
part we discuss changes in the frequency and intensity of cyclones and
associated windstorms affecting the Mediterranean region simulated under
enhanced Greenhouse Gas forcing conditions. This analysis is based on 7
climate model integrations performed with two coupled global models
(ECHAM5 MPIOM and INGV CMCC). In section three a specific cyclone related
process of high impact is analysed in more detail for changes under future
climate conditions: cyclones travelling from the western Mediterranean
north-eastward leading to high precipitation amounts in central Europe. |